A TradingView chart comparing yearly performance (2020–2025), showing 2025 leading with about +53% growth while other years range from –6% to +27%.
- By Azhar Bahrainwala | 9xMarkets
Gold's Really May Be Near Its Breaking Point Neoway Analysis Flags Structure
Gold’s record-setting run could be running out of steam. After an 11 leg advance that began in mid 2023, structural patterns suggest the metal is nearing the top of a multi-year cycle of increasingly shallow corrections. The latest phase labeled E:3 in NeoWave terms has carried prices to roughly $4,300, a zone defined by steep acceleration and increasingly shallow corrections.
In the logic of NeoWave theory, when a complex leg like this ends, the confirmation comes through a decline larger and faster than any prior pullback in the sequence. Until that happens, the structure remains alive but its internal geometry shows clear signs of fatigue.
The level to watch is $3,850. A decisive break below it would confirm that gold’s E-wave has peaked, signaling the start of a broad corrective phase that could stretch well into 2026. The timing is not arbitrary. NeoWave analysis treats time as a structural variable: if gold doesn’t confirm the reversal by March 2026, the current interpretation fails, and a new wave count must be developed.
For traders and investors, this sets a rare binary condition. Either gold extends the euphoria, proving the advance incomplete or it delivers the kind of sharp retracement that marks the end of a psychological cycle. The first scenario rewards momentum traders; the second forces a repricing across commodities and safe haven assets.
So far, momentum indicators are beginning to fray. Weekly RSI readings have flattened, and parabolic support channels are testing their lower edges. A move below $3,850 particularly on a weekly close would shift the focus from accumulation to distribution, inviting the kind of volatility that typically follows exhaustion.
Still, in a longer context, this isn’t the end of gold’s story. A correction from here would likely form part of a multi decade diametric pattern, a rhythm of expansion and contraction that’s been unfolding since the early 2000s. Once complete, the structure could reset positioning for the next secular advance, possibly at even higher nominal levels in the next decade.
For now, the message is simple, gold’s ascent is impressive, but structural logic says the market has reached a point where conviction meets geometry. The coming weeks will reveal whether this was just another pause or the beginning of something larger. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market Structure evolve, and all projections remains valid only within their stated conditions.